As the United States picks up the pieces from Hurricane Sandy one thing we should take note in this part of the world is not how the authorities and people responded to the hurricane, which in many respects until last year was unheard of in places like New York and greater northeast of the United States but how countries like Cuba, the Bahamas and Haiti responded to the hurricane. We should ask ourselves if a similar weather event were to hit the coast of East Africa, would we be prepared for it? Given the severity and impact of recent extreme weather events – scorching drought in the US food belt, Hurricane Sandy and the one in the Indian Ocean that Sandy overshadowed in the mainstream press – it is hard to deny the reality of global climate change.
A less dramatic slow-moving event, but one that is arguably just as important for people’s long-term welfare is the reality of East African integration. The regional economic integration process is inevitable, despite skepticism about the wisdom of the monetary union and political federation. The social and economic integration of five partner states of the East African Community (EAC) is accelerating. Like climate change, regional integration is already here. How prepared are we for it?
Climate Change is the New Constant
Climate change needs to be a part of our political discourse; we can never be fully prepared from natural disasters but we can at least have structures in place that can help and support East Africans in recovering from natural disasters.
Perhaps one of the biggest misconceptions about climate change and global warming is the idea that the planet is ‘heating up.’ In fact, the best explanation we have read about climate change and the consequences of global warming is that we will have regular weather but on steroids. This means our rainy seasons will see a lot more rain, resulting in more floods such as the ones we saw in Dar es Salaam in 2011 and Rwanda last month. We will see longer periods of drought and our hot dry seasons will be hotter and dryer. The events and impacts will be magnified. This is something we must understand and prepare for.
East Africa’s record in preparing for and responding to natural disasters have not been good. The Greater Horn of East Africa (GHEA) is second only to Southeast Asia, as one of the most disaster prone regions in the world. Sadly, we have been better at reacting to natural disasters rather than anticipating them. We should anticipate more natural disasters, especially on the East African coast. The 2004 earthquake and tsunami in Southeast Asia should serve as a warning. While it was hard to imagine that the coastlines of Somalia, Kenya and Tanzania could be affected by a seaquake whose epicenter was many thousands of miles away, some 80 people died when the effects of the tsunami wave reached Somalia, Kenya and Tanzania. Earlier this year the coastal cities of Dar es Salaam and Mombasa panicked due to warnings of a potential tsunami hitting the coast. The traffic chaos in the streets of Dar es Salaam showed how utterly unprepared we are.
Acknowledging the reality of climate change and being prepared to deal with the extreme weather events that it will generate is vital for promoting human security in the region.
Between Hard and Soft Security
When we think of security and East Africa, the first instinct is always to think about hard security, terrorism, al-Shabab, Somalia, separatist groups etc. We hardly think of human security and the challenges this brings to the long-term stability of the region. Security ought to be looked from a dual prism of state (hard) security as well as human (soft) security. Focusing exclusively on hard security issues at the expense of soft security dissolves the youthful human capital advantage enjoyed by East Africa. The immediate consequences are seen amongst the youth of East Africa and the greater African continent. It is estimated that in less than three generations, 41% of the world’s youth will be African. But how can the region exploit this clear demographic advantage when many of the youth are uneducated, illiterate and malnourished?
The current tensions in Zanzibar demonstrate the consequences of ignoring ‘soft’ security. Once could argue that not paying attention to human security and improving human development is what has led to the current political unrest and tensions we have recently seen in the isles. When human and economic development has been stagnant for as long as it has been in Unguja and Pemba, young people are often left choosing between narcotic fatalism and violent extremism.
Leadership: The X-Factor
How the region handles these two critical issues at the end of the day is up to how the leadership of the region prioritizes them. In September 2012, Mo Ibrahim told the Wall Street Journal, that “Africa doesn’t need help, doesn’t need aid. It’s a very rich continent. There is no justification for us to be poor” The heart of the problem is “governance-the way Africans govern themselves. Without good governance, there’s no way forward.” What Mr. Ibrahim is referring to is what I like to call the X-Factor in the future of East Africa that will determine whether the challenges of security and ecology derail the regional integration process or not.
If the region’s leaders do not take the environment and ecology seriously then we will be caught flatfooted when disaster hits and overwhelmed when our human security is shattered. The episodic bouts of political violence in Kenya, mounting politico-religious tensions in Tanzania, the delicately balanced peace in Burundi and the forthcoming round of high-stakes elections and leadership transitions in all five East African Community countries mark a critical moment in the region.
East Africa’s elite could take comfort in the high, positive economic growth rates, expanding intra-regional and global trade, and the rising global profile of the region. However, the hitherto relatively smooth ride towards greater regional integration trend can be derailed if we take our ecological and human security for granted.
Ahmed Salim and Aidan Eyakuze work with the Society for International Development, organizers of the first East Africa Future Day.
To find out more about Future Day click here